Reciprocity , Accountability and Credibility In International Relations ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
Do public opinion dynamics play an important role in understanding conflict dynamics between democracies and their international rivals? These opinion dynamics and government behavior are interpreted as particular causal links in models of reciprocity, accountability and credibility. Theoretical expectations about the character of these linkages are translated into four distinct Bayesian structural time series models. The models are fit to events data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with provisions for U.S. intervention. We find that a credibility model fits the data best. This credibility model supports research that predicts asymmetric reciprocity between democratic and non-democratic belligerents. For the credibility model there is evidence that more pacific Israeli opinion leads to more immediate hostility by the Palestinians toward the Israelis. The direction of this response suggests a negative feedback mechanism in which low level conflict is maintained and momentum toward either all out war or dramatic peace is slowed. Finally, we use the credibility model to forecast ex ante 24 months ahead fromMarch 2005. These forecasts show rapid deterioration of Israeli-Palestinian relations (even if recent election outcomes in the Levant had not occurred). The forecasts illustrate that the level of violence and support for peace move in opposite directions. ∗Freeman and Brandt’s research is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants Nos. SES-0351179, SES-0351205, SES-0540816. We thank Will Moore, Jon Pevehouse and Phil Schrodt for their advice on this project and also the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research for supplying us with public opinion data. An earlier version of this project was presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, March 22-25, 2006. The authors are solely responsible for the paper’s contents.
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The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility
Do public opinion dynamics play an important role in understanding conflict trajectories between democratic governments and other rival groups? We interpret several theories of opinion dynamics as competing clusters of contemporaneous causal links connoting reciprocity, accountability and credibility. We then translate these clusters into four distinct Bayesian structural time series models. Th...
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